As I look forward to the futures market opening this evening at 6 pm, the feelings I have are bad. Just bad. I have managed to fritter away all gains as my extreme market pessimism and leveraged shorts have continued their free fall in the face of irrational exuberance in the markets. I am reminded, of course, of the oft-quoted Keynes: “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent”. How did I get here? Well, any number of factors have contributed. Fundamentally, as I look in the mirror, I am gambling and feeding off the emotions I am not finding in my everyday life. I have made thousands of trades in the past three years since Covid started. And I would have been better off just buying an index fund.
Will the market go my way tomorrow, this week, this month? I don’t know. Over the next few months? Yes, very likely. However, I will be playing from a much smaller base, any gains I might get will be less than they could have been because I keep throwing good money after bad. Don’t do that.
I will remind you that if you are feeling extreme emotions one way or another in regards to your investing, you are doing something wrong. Please learn from my mistake.
The fundamental problem that started all of this is that I don’t love my work. Haven’t in many years. And I have been looking for something else to fill the gap and make my days meaningful. Work to live, live to work. Which is it? I have never been one to work to live. But I have found it quite elusive to find that work to live for and for me there appears to be very little middle ground. I keep bouncing from one thing to another and as I explore my mid-life crisis, I am reminded that if I had just stuck to something I would be wealthy, perhaps more fulfilled and generally in a better place. Instead, I write a blog, pretending that this might be my way out. Certainly, I will garner millions of readers, get corporate sponsorships for my erudite missives and find meaning in sharing my insights with millions.
My apologies, dear reader, if there is one out there, for this less than inspiring post. I will try harder in the morning.